The Polls are Wrong

Of course they are. They always are. Even when they're right, it's by accident.

But how are they wrong?

Here are two popular and offsetting theories. First, racism. Who is going to state--or even imply--being a racist? To avoid any such consideration, people will often claim their intent to vote for the racial minority candidate just to avoid any such appearance. But when they get into the voting booth, there is no way to tell how they really voted. So, advantage McCain.

On the other hand, do you know someone who owns a cell phone...but no hard-wired home phone? I know at least three. Each is a devout Obama supporter. But 'the polls' are conducted by phone...only to people with land lines recorded in the phone book. So, possible advantage here for Obama.

The latest wrinkle is the finding that by a 2-1 margin, voters blame the Wall Street meltdown more on Republicans than Democrats. So that should give Obama a pretty good idea of how to campaign between now and election day.

But still anyone's guess whether all that can overcome his racial negative.