Old New York

I spent last week in New York, some of it talking with financial analysts who have covered the retail sector for many years. These are insiders...the experts paid to see trends before we do, and place their bets accordingly. So it was more than a little perplexing, after asking them what comes next for the economy, to hear them answer uniformly, "who knows?"

There were still people in the high end stores. I suspect there always will be. And a round of drinks for three in a middling mid town hotel bar still cost $75. Obscene wealth is not yet fully out of favor.

But 99% of us aren't rich. A long time friend with a nice family and a nice house and a nice big SUV and an even bigger mortgage recently confessed, "we sat down last night to take a hard look at our finances. We've been bad. Really, really bad."

Every serious recession brings expectations that there will be a moral awakening across the land, that people will lose their fiscal shortcomings, begin to save and appreciate 'the things that really matter'. But that typically lasts only until the early days of the next boom.

Could this time be different? Even without a surging conscience, might the sheer shrinking of credit cut down the hilarious materialism?

Best Buy, a cathedral of sorts for shiny, expensive technical things, has just unveiled a new slogan: "You, happier". That pretty much sums up the national lust of the last decade.

But now, maybe not so much anymore. One can hope.